Audubon’s Climate Watch, Now a Decade Old, Has Tracked Shifts in Bird Ranges as Temperatures Rise

The chill of the February morning air nipped at Aiyana Uter’s face, bringing tears to her eyes as she lifted binoculars to examine the trees for flecks of blue. Alongside other members of Claflin Univer­sity’s Audubon campus chapter, Uter perked her ears for a familiar soft warble. The group moved methodically, walking to preselected patches of Orangeburg, South Carolina, and spending five minutes at each location recording Eastern Bluebirds and other species they observed.

Each winter and summer, groups like Uter’s fan out across the country to participate in Audubon’s Climate Watch, a community science initiative that tracks where birds go in a changing climate. The program launched in 2016 with just 75 people looking for bluebirds in four states. In the decade since, it’s grown to mobilize more than 1,000 annual participants who count 12 species including nuthatches, goldfinches, and towhees in the places where they’re historically found—and the places they might be moving to. 

Audubon started the effort to check its climate change predictions. In 2014 and 2019, scientists analyzed how rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and other shifts could remake avian habitats, with vast areas becoming either more or less suitable to different species’ needs. The 2019 report, Survival by Degrees, projected that 389 species were vulnerable to climate threats and mapped where birds might gain and lose ground under various global warming scenarios.

But those were just forecasts, and only on-the-ground observations could reveal whether birds were actually moving into new terrain or disappearing from areas where they once thrived. That’s where Climate Watch volunteers come in, reporting concrete data on where they see “target species” and, just as importantly, where they don’t. “Nobody has really done, at this scale, what we’re doing,” says Brooke Bateman, senior director of climate and community science at Audubon. “The science is telling a story that we wouldn’t be able to do without these folks out there across the country.”

In 2020, the team published an initial study that confirmed observations were more or less lining up with predictions. As expected, birds were expanding into new areas as local climate conditions shifted, such as Brown-headed Nuthatches fanning northwest from their typical southeastern pine forests. Now the team is working on an updated analy­sis that will include data from the entire decade. “We’re seeing even stronger validation of our climate projections than we did from the first paper,” says Sarah Saunders, Audubon’s senior manager of quantitative science. “And we’re identifying which species are keeping pace with climate change and which are lagging behind.”

The early results reveal nuances across species and seasons. For example, models predict that both Eastern and Western Bluebirds, which rely on semi-open woods and groves, could be pushed out of certain southern parts of their ranges as temperatures rise but may see new swaths to the north become more livable. The latest Climate Watch findings suggest Western Bluebirds are already relocating—but Eastern Bluebirds have been slower to shift their winter habitats, which could leave them exposed to climate threats. Meanwhile, nuthatches appear hesitant to expand into unfamiliar forests for the breeding season, Saunders says, suggesting other habitat factors may hold birds back from new areas even when the climate conditions are good.

The project contributes to a growing body of work that tracks how species are moving around on a warming planet. Ben Winger, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Michigan who is not involved with Climate Watch, notes that some mountain birds are running out of space as they seek cooler conditions upslope. Other recent studies have found that many North American bird populations have moved their ranges north, but even those shifts haven’t been enough to outrun higher temperatures.

All of this data, ultimately, can inform conservation. Knowing which birds are struggling to adapt can help scientists prioritize habitats and species that need the most attention. Communities can get involved, too: For example, birders might install nest boxes to welcome bluebirds and other cavity nesters into new terrain. More broadly, Winger sees birds as a lens for anyone to understand how climate change is reshaping local landscapes. Plus, projects like Climate Watch give people a chance to have a scientific impact.

That’s been the case for Carrie Wild. She got involved with Climate Watch through the Amos Butler Audubon Society in Indiana. “I had the best time because it felt like I was a part of something bigger,” Wild says. Her love for nature also shapes her work as a professional artist. On one bird survey, she spotted a Golden-crowned Kinglet for the first time; inspired by the experience, Wild captured it on paper in swirling, dreamy watercolors. Often, she’ll donate her original works to auctions that raise money for conservation.

Meanwhile, Uter, who leads Claflin’s Audubon campus chapter, says it’s important that young people know they can protect nature “without it being like, ‘You need to spend a million dollars.’ ” For her, participating in Climate Watch surveys and keeping an eye out for birds in her neighborhood are accessible ways to do just that.

This story originally ran in the Summer 2026 issue as “Hot on the Trail.” To receive our print magazine, become a member by making a donation today.