Photo: Christoph Strässler/Flickr (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Size: 
6,395.4 sq. mi.

Katmai National Park and Preserve in southwest Alaska is known for its brown bears, but natural wonders in the park abound. Like many places in Alaska, Katmai’s landscape is experiencing climate impacts from changes in snow cover to lake ice cover to glacial thinning and retreat, and other impacts will extend to its birds. 21 species could colonize the park as the climate changes over the next 30 years. Meanwhile, the park’s climate suitability is expected to worsen for 35 species, potentially resulting in these birds going extinct within the park by 2050. It is recommended that park managers prepare for an influx of bird species and closely monitor species that are at risk of extirpation from the park.

  • summer
  • winter

Suitable climate for these species is currently available in the park. This list is derived from National Park Service Inventory & Monitoring data and eBird observations. Note, however, there are still imperfections in these datasets.

These are species that may find the new climate conditions of this park suitable by 2050. But projected changes in climate suitability are not definitive predictions of future species ranges or abundances. Numerous other factors affect where species occur, including habitat quality, food abundance, species adaptability, and the availability of microclimates.

Within this park, suitable climate for these birds ceases to occur by 2050. Species may either adapt to the park’s new climate or may follow suitable climate elsewhere.

Suitable climate for these species is currently available in the park. This list is derived from National Park Service Inventory & Monitoring data and eBird observations. Note, however, there are still imperfections in these datasets.

These are species that may find the new climate conditions of this park suitable by 2050. But projected changes in climate suitability are not definitive predictions of future species ranges. Numerous other factors affect where species occur, including habitat quality, food abundance, species adaptability, and the availability of microclimates.

Within this park, suitable climate for these birds ceases to occur by 2050. Species may either adapt to the park’s new climate or may follow suitable climate elsewhere.

This Park in Context

The extent of turnover, potential colonization, and potential extirpation varies among the 53 national parks featured on this website. Below, see how this park compares to others in summer and winter. Click on a circle to explore results for another park.

  • summer
  • winter

American Goldfinch. Photo: Lynn Cleveland/Audubon Photography Awards